U.S. international transactions in 2002

After slightly narrowing during the cyclical slowdown of 2001, the U.S. current account deficit widened in 2002, as it had over the previous decade. Two-thirds of the increase in the deficit last year was attributable to an increase in the deficit for trade in goods and services. In addition, net investment income receded as receipts from abroad declined more than payments on foreign investments in the United States. The record $503 billion U.S. current account deficit registered in 2002 was financed by continued high levels of private capital inflows and stepped-up foreign official purchases of U.S. assets. If economic activity picks up in the United States and in its major trading partners later this year, as most forecasters expect, the U.S. external deficit likely will widen as U.S. imports of goods and services rise by a greater amount than U.S. exports of goods and services. The decline in the dollar from early 2002 to date is unlikely to restrain the widening of the deficit by much, as it has been relatively small and its effects will be spread over a number of years.International trade ; Exports ; Imports

YPFS Lessons Learned Oral History Project: An Interview with Steven Kamin

Suggested Citation Form: Kamin, Steven B. 2022. “Lessons Learned Interview by Yasemin Sim Esmen, August 16, 2019. Yale Program on Financial Stability Lessons Learned Oral History Project. Transcript. https://ypfs.som.yale.edu/library/ypfs-lesson-learned-oral-history-project-interview-steven-kami

Lessons Learned: Steven B. Kamin

Sim Esmen, Yasemin (2022) Lessons Learned: Steven B. Kamin, Journal of Financial Crises: Vol. 4 : Iss. 3, 202-204. Available at: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/journal-of-financial-crises/vol4/iss3/

Emails Between PBOC and Federal Reserve-2015

A series of emails between Steven Kamin Director, Division of International Finance of the Federal Reserve Board and (1) Mr. Ma Jun Chief Economist, Research Bureau, PBOC and separately with (2) Xiangyan Song of the Peoples Bank of China Representative Office for the Americas (NYC). The emails begin on September 28, 2014, and conclude (due to time zones) with one dated July 27, 2015, from Mr. Song to Mr. Kamin. On July 2015, Mr. Song asks for assistance due to the 8.5% drop in China\u27s stock market. Mr. Kamin provided information in an email dated the next day

ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis

The “global saving glut” (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined with both innovations and deficiencies of the U.S. credit market, are believed to have contributed to the U.S. housing bubble and to the buildup in financial vulnerabilities that led to the financial crisis. Because the GSG countries for the most part restricted their U.S. purchases to Treasuries and Agency debt, their provision of savings to ultimately risky subprime mortgage borrowers was necessarily indirect, pushing down yields on safe assets and increasing the appetite for alternative investments on the part of other investors. We present a more complete picture of how capital flows contributed to the crisis, drawing attention to the sizable inflows from European investors into U.S. private-label asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities and other structured investment products. By adding to domestic demand for private-label ABS, substantial foreign acquisitions of these securities contributed to the decline in their spreads over Treasury yields. Through a combination of empirical estimation and model simulation, we verify that both GSG inflows into Treasuries and Agencies, as well as European acquisitions of ABS, played a role in contributing to downward pressures on U.S. interest rates.

Predictive gaze cues affect face evaluations: The effect of facial emotion

When we see someone change their direction of gaze, we spontaneously follow their eyes because we expect people to look at interesting objects. Bayliss and Tipper (2006) examined the consequences of observing this expectancy being either confirmed or violated by faces producing reliable or unreliable gaze cues. Participants viewed different faces that would consistently look at the target, or consistently look away from the target: The faces that consistently looked towards targets were subsequently chosen as being more trustworthy than the faces that consistently looked away from targets. The current work demonstrates that these gaze contingency effects are only detected when faces create a positive social context by smiling, but not in the negative context when all the faces held angry or neutral expressions. These data suggest that implicit processing of the reward contingencies associated with gaze cues relies on a positive emotional expression to maintain expectations of a favourable outcome of joint attention episodes

International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003-2007

Part of the International Finance Discussion Paper

Effect of natalizumab on disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (ASCEND). a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an open-label extension

Background: Although several disease-modifying treatments are available for relapsing multiple sclerosis, treatment effects have been more modest in progressive multiple sclerosis and have been observed particularly in actively relapsing subgroups or those with lesion activity on imaging. We sought to assess whether natalizumab slows disease progression in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, independent of relapses. Methods: ASCEND was a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (part 1) with an optional 2 year open-label extension (part 2). Enrolled patients aged 18–58 years were natalizumab-naive and had secondary progressive multiple sclerosis for 2 years or more, disability progression unrelated to relapses in the previous year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 3·0–6·5. In part 1, patients from 163 sites in 17 countries were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 300 mg intravenous natalizumab or placebo every 4 weeks for 2 years. Patients were stratified by site and by EDSS score (3·0–5·5 vs 6·0–6·5). Patients completing part 1 could enrol in part 2, in which all patients received natalizumab every 4 weeks until the end of the study. Throughout both parts, patients and staff were masked to the treatment received in part 1. The primary outcome in part 1 was the proportion of patients with sustained disability progression, assessed by one or more of three measures: the EDSS, Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), and 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT). The primary outcome in part 2 was the incidence of adverse events and serious adverse events. Efficacy and safety analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01416181. Findings: Between Sept 13, 2011, and July 16, 2015, 889 patients were randomly assigned (n=440 to the natalizumab group, n=449 to the placebo group). In part 1, 195 (44%) of 439 natalizumab-treated patients and 214 (48%) of 448 placebo-treated patients had confirmed disability progression (odds ratio [OR] 0·86; 95% CI 0·66–1·13; p=0·287). No treatment effect was observed on the EDSS (OR 1·06, 95% CI 0·74–1·53; nominal p=0·753) or the T25FW (0·98, 0·74–1·30; nominal p=0·914) components of the primary outcome. However, natalizumab treatment reduced 9HPT progression (OR 0·56, 95% CI 0·40–0·80; nominal p=0·001). In part 1, 100 (22%) placebo-treated and 90 (20%) natalizumab-treated patients had serious adverse events. In part 2, 291 natalizumab-continuing patients and 274 natalizumab-naive patients received natalizumab (median follow-up 160 weeks [range 108–221]). Serious adverse events occurred in 39 (13%) patients continuing natalizumab and in 24 (9%) patients initiating natalizumab. Two deaths occurred in part 1, neither of which was considered related to study treatment. No progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy occurred. Interpretation: Natalizumab treatment for secondary progressive multiple sclerosis did not reduce progression on the primary multicomponent disability endpoint in part 1, but it did reduce progression on its upper-limb component. Longer-term trials are needed to assess whether treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis might produce benefits on additional disability components. Funding: Biogen

System Size and Energy Dependence of Jet-Induced Hadron Pair Correlation Shapes in Cu+Cu and Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV

We present azimuthal angle correlations of intermediate transverse momentum (1-4 GeV/c) hadrons from {dijets} in Cu+Cu and Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The away-side dijet induced azimuthal correlation is broadened, non-Gaussian, and peaked away from \Delta\phi=\pi in central and semi-central collisions in all the systems. The broadening and peak location are found to depend upon the number of participants in the collision, but not on the collision energy or beam nuclei. These results are consistent with sound or shock wave models, but pose challenges to Cherenkov gluon radiation models.Comment: 464 authors from 60 institutions, 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm